but no reboot was scheduled (/run/systemd/shutdown/scheduled did not exist).
To eliminate the delayed shutdown as the problem, I restored a snapshot and repeated the update with the monitor action changed simply to:
/usr/sbin/reboot
At 00:20 the monitor changed from green to red and the notification said:
Running /usr/sbin/reboot ..
but the server did not reboot.
The package update continued for a while after that, but has now finished and the load has dropped. The server still has not rebooted. The Reboot Required monitor continues to add a red status entry every five minutes.
So this looks as though the Reboot Required monitor is detecting the condition and reporting that it is running the configured command, but the reboot command is not actually taking effect.
Just rebooted the EL10 server manually, the Reboot Required message goes away.