The problem with 2 is that - Who knows what the user/owner of the domain is thinking?
It is possible to get the domain registration date (and theoretical expiry) from Whois but obtaining an exact expiry date is nigh on impossible (and for good reason it is under the whim of the owner). In addition, most registrars provide their customers with auto renewal mechanisms as well as options to renew over multiple years and even transfer/resale. I have one client who does this renewal in 10 year blocks his business sees the domain name as such an important key asset to his business. It should, of course, be a principle item in any domain owners disaster recovery plan. Even if they let a domain to expire there are mechanisms in place for regaining ownership. (grace periods and legal options)